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Narrower alumina price rallies:spot prices slide as regional mismatches ease.

2026-07-03 0 Leave me a message

Price Review

As of Thursday this week, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 2,693.19 RMT/tonne, up 11.9 RMT/tonne week-on-week.

Shandong: 2,770–2,830 RMT/tonne, +20 RMT/tonne WoW

Henan: 2,790–2,850 RMT/tonne, +20 RMT/tonne WoW

Shanxi: 2,800–2,870 RMT/tonne, +20 RMT/tonne WoW

Guangxi: 2,630–2,730 RMT/tonne, flat WoW

Guizhou: 2,760–2,800 RMT/tonne, flat WoW

Aluminum

Overseas Market

As of 2 July 2026, Western Australia FOB alumina price was USD 330/tonne, with ocean freight at USD 32.3/tonne. The USD-CNY spot ask rate hovered around 6.80. Converted to domestic major port landed selling price, the equivalent cost reached roughly 2,865.02 RMT/tonne, 90.37 RMT/tonne higher than the SMM Alumina Index.

One overseas spot alumina transaction was closed this week, details as follows:

1.Dated 25 June 2026: 30,000 tonnes of alumina traded at USD 330/mt FOB Western Australia, August shipment schedule.

Domestic Market

Per SMM statistics, as of Thursday this week, China’s total constructed metallurgical-grade alumina capacity hit 118.42 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), while active operating capacity registered 87.95 mtpa. The national weekly alumina operating rate edged down 0.23 percentage points week-on-week to 74.27%.

Shandong: Weekly operating rate rose 0.95 pct to 89.31%

Shanxi: Weekly operating rate climbed 0.41 pct to 64.31%

Henan: Weekly operating rate fell 3.5 pct WoW to 56.83%

Guangxi: Weekly operating rate inched up 0.43 pct WoW to 76.13%

Guizhou: Weekly operating rate jumped 8.89 pct WoW to 81%

Spot Market Performance

Two spot deals were concluded this week:

1.Xinjiang tender procurement: 10,000 tonnes alumina spot, delivered plant price at approx. 3,135 RMT/tonne

2.Gansu tender procurement: Alumina spot, delivered plant price at 3,000 RMT/tonne

As of Thursday this week, alumina prices maintained an upward trend with visibly narrowed gains; prices weakened over the past two days, and the overall spot transaction price centre kept sliding lower.

Aluminum

Inventory Analysis

SMM tracking showed China’s total alumina inventory edged up 1,000 tonnes month-on-month to 7.015 million tonnes, with minimal overall fluctuation.

Primary aluminium smelter raw material inventory: Down 47,000 tonnes to 3.364 million tonnes. Amid elevated spot alumina prices, some smelters actively drew down high-cost stockpiles, dragging inventory lower.

Alumina refinery on-site inventory: Slightly up 2,000 tonnes to 1.231 million tonnes. Production cuts from maintenance in Shanxi offset output growth in southern regions, resulting in muted overall changes.

Port & Warehouse Inventory Breakdown

Port inventory: Inflow of new vessels lifted stocks by 31,000 tonnes to 891,000 tonnes

Warehouse receipt inventory: Reduced 9,000 tonnes to 263,000 tonnes. Constrained invoicing procedures and spot-futures price spreads dampened warehouse deposit willingness.

Transit & yard inventory: Increased 23,000 tonnes to 1.267 million tonnes, driven by expired warehouse receipts converted to physical spot plus sustained shipments out of Guangxi that accumulated transit cargo volumes.

Outlook

Overall, alumina supply fundamentals are expected to remain largely unchanged next week. Some refineries relying on domestic bauxite may schedule maintenance amid raw material supply tightness, yet the impact on monthly output will be limited, and aggregate inventory levels will stay steady.

On prices, easing regional alumina supply-demand mismatches are set to push the spot price centre downward, with prices likely to face sustained downward pressure in the subsequent period.

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